Duty hikes likely due to surge in imports of steel; DGTR announces anti-dumping investigation

The rating agency ICRA said that due to the increase in imports, the capacity utilization of the domestic steel industry in 2024-25 may fall below 80 percent for the first time since four years.

According to a source familiar with the situation, due to the surge in imports of steel from China and other countries, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry will likely recommend an increase in the duty on steel.

In a Friday notification, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies initiated an investigation on anti-dumping into certain steel imports in India.

There are concerns over the impact a steel tariff hike would have on downstream industries, but there is also a massive amount of capacity in China. The person stated that a recommendation for a steel duty was likely because several Western countries impose duties on Chinese steel and this steel could be diverted to India.

The Ministry of Steel asked the Ministry of Commerce for a 25% duty on steel. It cited that imports of steel from China increased by 80 percent to 1.61 millions tonnes between January and the end of July of this year compared to the 0.9 million tons during the same time period last year. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises have warned, however, that a 25 per cent duty on steel products will negatively affect 8 lakh MSMEs.

According to the DGTR notice, the Indian Steel Association, which includes ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Limited (AMNS Khopoli Limited), JSW Steel Limited (JSW Steel Coated Products Limited), Bhushan Power & Steel Limited and Jindal Steel and Power Limited as well as the Steel Authority of India Limited is requesting the imposition of a "safeguard duty" on the imports of Non-Alloy and Alloy Steel Flat Products into India.

The applicant claims that imports have increased in volume in a sudden, abrupt, and significant manner, causing significant damage to the Indian domestic industry. The applicant also alleges that imports occurred at such high quantities and in such circumstances as they caused or threatened to cause serious harm to the domestic industry", DGTR stated in a notification.

ISA argued, that since the United States of America imposed a 25% duty under Section 232 of its Trade Expansion Act of 1962, multiple countries have taken trade remedy measures to combat steel imports. Evidence indicates that between 2019 and 2023, 129 trade remedies measures were imposed against steel products by different countries.

The slowing of demand in these countries is one reason for the existence of significant surplus capacity in China, Japan and South Korea. China's domestic policy measures have resulted in a decrease in consumption of steel long products that are used primarily in the real estate industry. Chinese steel companies have shifted a large percentage of production from long to flat products in order to mitigate the decline in consumption. These flat products are now exported on global markets.

GTRI, a think tank, argues that the main reason for imports is due to a gap between production and consumption of steel.

According to official statistics, India produced 139.15 MT of steel in FY 2024. It exported 7.5MT and consumed 136.29MT. Imports were necessary to meet the domestic demand, as there was little left over. Steel imports are only 6 percent of the domestic production and are mainly for large steel companies. They consist of 50 percent raw materials, such as scrap steel, and 40 percent specialized products that cannot be produced locally.

The ISA also stated that the Asean region will significantly increase its crude-steel production capacity. Approximately 75 percent of this expansion is due to Chinese investments. ASEAN is the top region for Chinese steel companies to invest across borders. They are investing heavily in overseas steel projects. ISA stated that the capacity of ASEAN will likely exceed regional steel demand by a wide margin.

ICRA, a rating agency, had predicted that domestic steel capacity utilization in 2024-25 would fall below 80 percent for the first four-year period due to the increase in imports. ICRA forecast that, along with record expansion plans, industry capacity utilisation would fall from 85 percent in 2023-24, to an estimated 78% in the current fiscal, the lowest level since four years.

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Global Trade Research Initiative: India should diversify IT-exports to navigate the Trump-led trade age

 India and the US were at odds over data localisation during Donald Trump's initial term.

India should diversify IT exports in order to reduce the risk of tariffs under Donald Trump, as a large portion of India's IT revenue is derived from the United States. This was stated by Global Trade Research Initiative on Sunday.

India's software exports reached $205 billion by 2023-24. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s annual survey on computer-software and information technology enabled services (ITES) exported, 54% of these exports were from the US, with Europe coming in second at 31%.

Trump has also taken several measures during his first term to limit immigration. Trump also made a key promise in his polls to curb immigration.

GTRI said that India must also strengthen its data policies and resist pressures from outside to freely share data. It should also continue to reject the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity trade pillar which could limit India's digital and labour policy.

During Trump’s first term, the US and India were at odds over the localisation of data. India refused to change its stance regarding data localisation when it came to plurilateral agreements with the WTO, and instead tightened its regulations. In April 2018, for example, the RBI required that payment system providers such as Mastercard, Visa and American Express store Indian residents' payments data in India.

India's draft policy on e-commerce, which contains robust provisions for localisation, is still stalled. This could be due to US pressure.

The report highlighted that other countries, such as Mexico, Canada and the ASEAN group, benefited more than India from the US-China Trade War. GTRI stated that India needs to strengthen its supply chains at home, produce key intermediates in order to reduce reliance upon China, improve cost efficiency, and make it easier to do business. This will help to increase export competitiveness.

GTRI stated that India's trade landscape is changing as Donald Trump returns to the US presidency. Trump's plans to impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China could be beneficial for India.

India also gained significantly. US imports of Indian goods increased by $36,8 billion in this time period, from $50.5 billion up to $87.3 billion. India was the 6th biggest contributor to the increase in US imports, according to the report.

The key drivers of India's growth in exports were smartphones and telecom equipment. They contributed $6.2 billion (17.2% of the total), followed by medicines ($4.5 billion (12.4%), petroleum oil at $2.5 billion (6.8%), and solar panels at $1.9 billion (5.3%). Together, gold jewellery and lab-grown stones added $2.3 billion.

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Wheat and edible oils are now the main inflation concerns

In November, the retail food inflation rate dipped to 9.04% from 10.87% in October.

Wheat and edible oil remain the two commodities that are most concerning.

The wholesale price of wheat at Delhi's Najafgarh Market is currently Rs 2,900-2950 per quintal. This compares to Rs 2,450-2,500 at the same time last year. In November, the annual consumer price inflation for wheat/whole flour and refined maida was 7.88%.

Vegetable oils saw an even higher inflation rate, 13.28%. According to the data from the department of consumer affairs, the modal retail price for packed palm oil in India is now Rs 143/kg. This is up from Rs 95 per kg a year earlier. Other oils have also increased in price: Soyabean oil (Rs. 154/kg versus Rs. 110/kg), Sunflower oil (Rs. 159/kg versus Rs. 115/kg) and Mustard (Rs. 176/kg versus Rs. 135).

What is the explanation for the inflation above?

Wheat: Limited domestic supply

In the last three crop years, India's wheat production has been below average. Stocks in godowns of the government have fallen to their lowest level since 2007-08, and domestic prices are still high despite an export prohibition since May 2022.

This time, Indian farmers have planted more wheat. This, combined with sufficient soil moisture and reservoir levels due to excess monsoon rainfall and also an expected La Nina (which would normally translate into a longer winter) has raised hope for a bumper crop in 2024-25.

The wheat planted in late October would not be ready to market until early April. The public distribution system requires about 1.5 million tonnes per month from the 20,6 million tonnes of wheat that were in public stocks at the beginning of December. In the period from January to March, the public can sell 7.1 mt in the open market. This is after subtracting the 7.46 mt normative minimum opening stock on April 1. These open market sales of government stocks in 2023-24 totaled 10.09 mt and helped to cool wheat prices.

The current prices may undermine government procurement. Open market prices are much higher than the official Minimum Support Price ( MSP). This may discourage farmers from selling to government agencies.

The Import Option

The international wheat price is currently low and imports are possible.

The price of Russian wheat in their origin ports is around $230, while the price for Australian wheat is $270. Addition of ocean freight and insurance costs of $40-45 for Russia and $30 for Australia brings their landed cost to India up to $270-300 a tonne, or Rs 2,290-2.545 a quintal. This is close to the MSP for a quintal of Rs 2,425

Even after incorporating port handling and bagging costs of Rs 170-180/quintal, and transport expenses of Rs 160-170/quintal, the cost for flour mills located in South India would be less than that of domestically-sourced grain.

There is a catch. Imports of wheat are subject to a 40% duty. Imports are only possible if the duty is zero. This might also be feasible politically, given that there will not be elections in the major wheat-producing States in 2025 – only Delhi and Bihar are scheduled to go to polls. Imports of 2-4 mt could help improve the domestic supply, and provide a buffer for any climate-induced damage to the crop from now until April.

Edible oils: Indonesian palm factor

Palm oil is the cheapest vegetable oil in nature. With 20-25 tonnes fresh fruit bunches, and a 20% extraction rate of crude palm oil from each hectare, 4-5 tons of CPO can be produced.

Soyabean, rapeseed/mustard and corn yields rarely exceed 3 to 3,5 tonnes and 2 to 2.5 tonnes per hectare. Even with a 20% recovery and 40% recovery their oil yields only 0.6-0.7 and 0.80-1 tonnes per ha respectively.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), palm oil will be the most widely produced vegetable oil in the world, with 76.26 million metric tons (mt) in 2023-24. This is ahead of soyabean oil (62.74mt), rapeseed oil (34.47mt), and sunflower oil (22.13mt).

CPO is usually cheaper than soyabean oil or sunflower oil because of higher yields. This was the case until August. In the last three to four months, we have seen a shift. The current landed price for imported CPO in India is $1,280 per ton, which is higher than the $1150 for crude soybean oil and $1,235 sunflower oil (table 2)

Indonesia's decision, to increase the blend of palm oil into diesel from 35% up to 40%, is believed to be the cause for the recent price spike. The top CPO producer in the world -- with 43 mt of CPO, followed by Malaysia (19.71mt) and Thailand (3.6 mt), plans to introduce so-called B40 Biodiesel this year.

According to USDA, Indonesia's biodiesel blend mandate - from 2.5% in 2008 up to 20% in 2018, 30% by 2020, 35% by 2023 and 40% by 2025 - will result in 14.7 million mt being diverted to domestic industrial use. This would reduce the country’s exportable surplus.

Can other oils replace the oil in?

The palm oil (mostly imported), accounts for 9-9.5 million metric tons of India's annual consumption of edible oils.

The lower availability of palm oil can be partially offset by increased imports from soyabean oil (mainly from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine) and sunflower oil (mainly in Russia and Romania). Imports of palm oil fell from 0.87 million tonnes in November 2023, to 0.84 million tonnes in November 2024. However, imports of soyabean and sunflower oil rose, respectively, from 0.13 mt up to 0.34 mt. In 2024-25 the global production of soyabean is expected to reach record levels, with Brazil, and the US, harvesting record crops.

There are limitations to the amount of palm oil that can be substituted. It's not a product that is marketed to consumers like sunflower, soyabean or mustard. It is preferred in fast-serve restaurants and bakeries, as well as industries such as snack foods, biscuits, and noodles, said Siraj Chandhry.

Palm oil has a neutral taste, is resistant to oxidation, and can be used for deep-frying. It's ideal for halwais, samosas, and pakodas. It also adds a flaky texture and extends the shelf life of baked goods.

Imports of crude palm, soybean and sunflower oils are currently subject to a duty of 27,5%. It remains to be determined if the government will make an exception for CPO.

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Arvind Panagariya: Internal policy barriers are a barrier to China plus one.

Arvind Pantagariya stated that while significant progress has been made, such as reforms to the Goods and Services Tax. (GST), more needs to be done on land and labour in order to encourage multinationals from leaving China.

Arvind Panagariya is the Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission. He has stated that India's internal policies are the main reason for its limited success in capturing the China plus one opportunity. India also has a huge advantage over countries like Vietnam and Thailand because of India's size and domestic supply chain.

The NITI Aayog Report noted that countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia have emerged as the biggest beneficiaries of the China Plus One' Strategy. Factors such as lower tariffs, simpler tax laws and cheaper labour played a key role in increasing their export share.

Panagariya stated that India should not limit Chinese investments in certain sectors. However, it is important to consider the source of the investment.

"But the real reason for our disadvantage is policy." Land is incredibly expensive and employment of labor is incredibly difficult. We need to address these policy and internal policy barriers that limit flexibility. Vietnam, for example, is a relatively small country. As soon as you pass the 80-90 million inhabitants of the country, your wages will begin to rise. "In India, there is a supply of workers with various skills levels that can be maintained without a significant increase in wages," Panagariya said at the CII Global Economic Policy Summit.

Panagariya stated that although significant progress has been made, such as with the Goods and Services Tax reforms (GST), more needs to be done on land and labour in order to attract multinationals out of China. Panagariya stated that India is the only country capable of replacing China in 15 to 20 years.

Panagariya said the arguments about protectionism are false. He also argued that the argument that the world has become more protectionist and that automation would lead to a reshoring in manufacturing, which could result in India having fewer opportunities than China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea etc. had, is flawed.

"It's true that protectionism has increased, but even if we take that into account, the world market today is probably more open than at any other time in history. The global merchandise export market is now worth $25 trillion. This is the peak since COVID. He said that the pre-COVID peak was $18 or $ 19 trillion.

He said that the export of services peaked at $7 trillion, up from $6 trillion before COVID.

"Our share of this huge market is less that 2 percent for exports of merchandise and less than 4 percent for services. We are still a tiny part. We can't say whether this trade will grow in the future, but we do know how small it is. China has a share of about 12-13 per cent. Panagariya stated that there are many opportunities for us on the global market.

Sunil Barthwal, Commerce Secretary, said that the world must avoid protectionism which increases trade barriers and impedes the flow of goods. He said that one should avoid a mercantilist mindset and not worry too much about imports and trade balance.

He said that if India's economy grows at 7 percent and the rest of the world grows at 3-3.5 percent, then India will need more imports. Let me also tell you the importance of imports to exports.

"As long we can improve our exports, we shouldn't be too concerned about imports. That is what I think we should avoid," he said.

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Government's concern: Profits in the private sector are at a 15-year high, but salaries have stagnated

V Anantha Nageswaran, the Chief Economic Advisor, referred to this report at least twice in his corporate speeches. He suggested that India Inc. should look inward and do something to fix it.

Policymakers are concerned that the sharp drop in economic growth to 5.4% in July-September of this year, despite a 4x (four-fold) increase in profits in the last four-year period, could be one of the factors behind the slowdown in demand.

The report by the industry chamber FICCI, in collaboration with Quess Corp Ltd (a tech-enabled firm that has over 3,000 clients), which was prepared for the government, has sparked conversations between corporate boardrooms and key economic ministries. It showed the wage growth rates for six different sectors from 2019 to 2023 varied between 0.8 percent for engineering, manufacturing and process infrastructure (EMPI), and 5.4 percent for fast-moving consumers goods (FMCG).

The situation has gotten worse for workers in the formal sector due to a lack of growth in real wages, i.e. wage growth adjusted for inflation. Retail inflation increased by 4.8 percent, 6.2 percent, 5.5%, 6.7%, and 5.4 percent over the five-year period from 2019-20 to 2023-24.

V Anantha Nageswaran, the Chief Economic Advisor, referred to this report at least twice in his corporate speeches. He suggested that India Inc. should look inward and do something to fix it.

According to government sources, the subdued consumer spending in urban areas is due in part to low income levels. Sources in the government said that the consumption increased post-Covid due to pent-up demands, but wage growth was slower, which has raised concerns about the full recovery of the economy to its pre-Covid phase.

The FICCI/Quess results are not public but the newspaper has accessed them. They show that, for the EMPI Sector, the CAGR for wages between 2019 and 23 was the lowest at only 0.8%.

The FMCG sector had the highest growth rate at 5.4%. In BFSI (banking and financial services, insurance), the wage growth rate was 2.8% during 2019-23. Retail saw a 3.7% increase, IT had a 4.0% rise, and logistics saw 4.24%.

The FMCG sector had the lowest average wage at Rs 19,023 and the IT sector the highest at Rs 49 076 in 2023.

Nageswaran stated that at Assocham’s Bharat@100 Summit, on December 5, there must be a better balanced between the incomes going to the capital as profits and the incomes going to the workers as wages. Without that, the demand for corporate products will be insufficient. He said that not paying employees or not hiring enough workers would end up damaging the corporate sector.

Nageswaran noted that the profitability of corporations was at its highest level in 15 years by March 2024.

"The previous record was 5,2% of GDP in profit after taxes, which occurred in March 2008. This was the boom period. In a difficult global environment, and after Covid... it is amazing that we can get to 4,8% in 2024. 2008 was a much more favourable global growth environment. Profitability growth is therefore very impressive. He said that the growth of profits in Indian corporations has been four times in the past four years.

Nageswaran stated that the staff costs of listed Indian companies have been decreasing, whether they are IT firms or other general businesses. "In other words the growth of compensation for employees is becoming weaker. "If you remove the compensation for managers, then it will be even worse," he said.

The average gross salary was calculated in the survey based on the sum of the salaries of all employees working across various job roles within a certain sector, divided by the number of employees. The survey stated that wage growth was indicative, not definitive. This is because salaries vary based on the job role. Some job roles receive higher wages than others.

It is reported that the concern about low wages has been raised in many internal government discussions.

An analyst at India Inc., who knows about the government's discussions, says that India will see an increase of inequality in this stage of macroeconomic development.

"The pandemic accentuated the issue; we are 7% behind the growth trajectory before the pandemic. You cannot ignore the fact that India's workforce is growing at a rapid pace. Our economy is a year behind schedule, but we have an extra year of work," said the unnamed analyst.

The bargaining power of the labour force is reduced because there is an excess of labour relative to capital. The analyst said that slow wages growth was inevitable. Should Corporate India take action? Analyst: "In this macro-environment, this is what ...," will happen.

Experts have suggested that raising productivity would be the answer to boosting growth. "There's no single answer. As an investor I need growth. If there is no return, people won't invest or take risks. I don't think paying more is the answer, but rather increasing productivity. Even if the cost is higher, a high level of productivity will make it cheaper. India's productivity is low and we are lagging behind our global counterparts. "The way to make people wealthy is to increase productivity, and that will also help growth," said Nilesh Sha, MD of Kotak Mahindra AMC.

Several in the industry believe that the issue of slow wage growth is more of a concern for the informal sector than the formal sector. Naushad Forbes said that the data presented is dependent on which period was selected. It will show a different picture if it starts with the Covid period. This is because salaries decreased and then increased. It depends on where you begin."

"I don't think there is a problem in the formal sector, as companies have been aiming for salary increases of 5-10% per year for several years." It is the informal sector that poses the greatest challenge. The number of jobs created and the employment generated is also more important. "I think that there should be more focus on formalising the workforce and on how to make employment-generating sectors like textiles, tourism, flourish," said he.

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Retail inflation eased significantly and encouraged hopes of rate cuts coming soon - creating greater optimism about rate decreases in February.

Data released Thursday by the National Statistics Office (NSO) indicated that retail inflation dropped to its lowest rate since September at 5.48 percent, after reaching its 14 month peak of 6.21 percent in October due to reduced prices for foods such as vegetables.

Food inflation measured by Consumer Food Price Index, (CFPI), saw its rate fall from double-digit levels and an all-time 15 month high of 10.87 percent in October to 9.04 percent in November.

NSO also released data showing India's industrial output measured by the Index of Industrial Production had seen an upswing from September's 3.1 per cent to 3.5% growth over November due to an improvement in manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors.

Consumer Price Index (Combined) inflation rates dropped below the upper limit of RBI's midterm inflation goal in November after surpassing 6 per cent the month prior, yet still exceeded its baseline level by over three percentage points for another consecutive monthly.

Experts noted that with inflation moderated, new RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra who assumed office on Wednesday will have greater room to cut rates at February's Monetary Meeting amid fears over slowing economic growth.

If inflation moderates in the coming months, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can reduce its policy rate accordingly. We anticipate that headline inflation rate will fall below 5% by Q4 of FY25 due to reduced food inflation; then MPC could consider cutting its policy rate by 25 bp at February meeting (we forecast 50-75 basis point reduction by 2025), said Rajani Sinha of CareEdge Ratings.

Food and beverage items comprise 45.86% of the CPI (Combined), accounting for an inflation rate in November of 8.200% - down from 9.69% in October. Vegetable inflation decreased to 29.33 percent while fruits decreased from 8.43 points in earlier months to 7.68.

Cereal inflation dropped slightly to 6.888% in November from 6.94% in October; pulse inflation decreased to 5.41% from 7.43%. Oils and fats inflation reached double-digit levels of 13.28 percent versus 9.51 percent seen previously, while housing inflation rates marginally rose from 2.81 to 2.87 percent during November.

Miscellaneous services inflation has also eased off slightly from 4.32 to 4.26 percent in November, but 10.42 percent personal care and effect inflation remains double-digits. Meanwhile, core inflation -- including non-food and non-fuel index components such as core inflation rate -- remained nearly constant at 3.6% versus 3.7% seen previously.

Experts stated that having a higher base will help lower inflation rates in the future, with sowing progress being critical in controlling it. Furthermore, experts will closely track edible oil inflation due to rising global prices and recent increases in import duty.

Paras Jassir, Senior Economist with India Ratings & Research stated, "we anticipate inflation to decrease by approximately 5 percent by December 2024 if the base effect for pulses, fruit and vegetables increases," though edible oils, personal care & effects products or any other challenges may remain."

Inflation data by region revealed rural inflation to have declined to 5.95 percent from 6.68 percent in October and urban inflation to have moderated from 5.62 to 4.83 percent; food inflation rates saw a marked reduction from 10.69% to 9.10% across both areas, while urban areas experienced rates as low as 8.74% - both reductions compared with rates as high as 11.09% seen previously.

Seven out of the 22 states/Union Territories with inflation rates above the headline rate (5.48%) have inflation rates above this benchmark; Chhattisgarh had the highest inflation rate (8.39%) followed by Bihar (7.55%) and Odisha(6.78%). Delhi experienced 2.65 percent.

"State-level inflation figures vary considerably, from 7.6 percent in Bihar to 2.7% in Delhi with food prices being more expensive in these states; Odisha Madhya Pradesh Kerala and Bihar also recorded over-6% inflation," stated Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda.

India's industrial output saw an uptick of 3.5% compared to 3.1% the prior month, as industrial growth between April and October totalled 4.0%, down from 7.0% previously.

The manufacturing sector, comprising 776.6% of IIP weight, experienced an increase of 4.1 percent versus 3.9 percent in September and 10.6 percentage points during the previous period. Mining production increased to 0.9 percent versus 0.2 percent growth seen previously while electricity output also saw growth at 2 percent versus an increase of 0.5 percent seen previously - still lower than its 20.4 growth during previous year period.

According to use-based classification, primary goods production increased 2.6% versus 1.8% in September; capital goods investment sentiment index fell from 3.6% in September to 3.16% in October; this compares with 36% growth seen previously and 21.7% year over year growth rate for September.

On the consumption goods front, both consumer durables (consumer durables) and non-durables (non-durables) output experienced strong increases despite starting from high bases. Consumer durables output, which measures demand for consumption goods, increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year compared to September levels (5.65 percent growth).

Consumer non-durables production increased by 2.7% year over year in October compared to 2.27 in September; during the same month last year it had grown 9.3%.

"The acceleration in consumer-goods production growth due to festive demands in October 2024 (6.2%) despite higher prices is an encouraging indicator for consumption demand in an economy. Rural real wages have seen steady improvements for some time now and these contributions are gradually driving an increase in consumption demand," Jasrai commented. Rabi sowing prospects could help maintain consumption demand well into 2HFY25," according to Jasrai.

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Gukesh's youngest world chess champion record: How he beat Garry Kasparov

Gukesh became the youngest World Champion in history after beating Ding Liren over 14 games in the World Chess Championship in Singapore.

D Gukesh, for the first time in nearly three weeks acted like a teenager. The teenager from Chennai, overwhelmed by the weight and intensity of the moment began to cry at the chessboard.

You don't become a world champion every day. You don't become the youngest World Champion in history every day. Gukesh did just that after beating Ding Liren over 14 games in the World Chess Championship in Singapore.

The succession of world chess champs, which began in 1886 with 17 men ascending to the throne, has never included a teenager.

Garry Kasparov, who was 22 years old, six months, and 27 days, before Gukesh became the youngest world champion, held that title. Magnus Carlsen was 22 years old, 11 months, and 24 days in 2013 when he became the first world champion.

Gukesh described the moment as "probably the best of my life" when his opponent made a mistake in the 55th game move on Thursday. This mistake opened the way for his ascent. He said, "I have dreamed about this moment since I began playing chess. I've been living it for more than ten years."

It looked as if the game was going to end in a tie. Ding's final line of defense was wiped out by a miscalculated rook push (55.Rf2), resulting in an inevitable checkmate. Ding lost the game, match, and crown because of a mistimed move.

At that point, both players had fought for more than four hours. Gukesh's slight advantage was due to the fact that he had three pawns compared to Ding’s two. He also had an extra hour of savings than his opponent. Gukesh had little to play for, other than hope. The 55th move changed all that.

Gukesh's face, which was previously inscrutable, erupted into a smile when he spotted the move.

Ding has been sneaking glances at Gukesh since the championship started on November 25. He was trying to read his emotions. Gukesh gave Ding little, and certainly no expressions that revealed his thoughts.

All of it came out after he won the world championship. Even empathy.

"I want to start by talking about my opponent before I do anything else." Ding Liren, we all know him. It is clear that he has been one the greatest players of all time for many years. The pressure he was under and the fight he put up at the world championship shows how true a champion he really is. Gukesh: "I'm sorry for Ding, his team and myself. I want to thank him for the show he put on."

Ding spoke earlier about his depression and lack of confidence on the board.

Gukesh stated that "no matter what anyone says about Ding, he is a true world champion." He was referring to the predictions of former world champions such as Magnus Carlsen, and elite Grandmasters such as Hikaru Nakamura, that the Indian would commit a "massacre", or that the Chinese GM's game would collapse.

Ding was not defeated, but did make three errors that led to three losses. The outgoing world champion also showed the same graciousness in defeat. It's only fair that I lose, considering my lucky escape from yesterday's match. Ding left the press conference saying, "I have no regrets."

Gukesh applauded Ding as he walked away, and only sat down after the Chinese left. He was not going to let his manners slip just because he won.

Gukesh waited at the chessboard for about 30 minutes after his opponent gave up, and he rearranged the board, even though he was emotional.

Gukesh won because he was able to fight. Some grandmasters might have taken a draw and fought the tie tomorrow.

Gukesh, who was competing in the World Chess Championships 2024, was unwilling to accept a draw for the third consecutive time, even though a victory was unlikely. This strategy failed to work in two previous games. It made him world champion on Thursday.

Since a while, the world of chess has been preparing for an era of Indian chess prodigies. From the Candidates tournament this year where an unprecedented number Indian players qualified, to the two gold medals won by the Indian teams in the Budapest Chess Olympiad. Kasparov had called it "Indian earthquake" in chess.

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