One top US tech chief executive told me on the day of the US presidential inauguration that although he is likely to face retaliatory tariffs, he thinks any trade war will cool down.
He said, "Trump goes by the reaction of the Dow Jones" - what the markets call the "Trump put".
That means that whenever the White House makes an announcement that hurts sentiment, the president backs down by seeing the stock market fall.
Those perceptions have now changed, after the president gave a TV interview in which he downplayed how much he is influenced by the markets.
And just a day after US stock markets fell sharply over concerns about the impact of Trump's policies, the president said he was going to double tariffs on steel and aluminum against Canada in response to higher fees for Canadian electricity worth about $100 per bill in New York, Minnesota and Michigan - although he later halted that plan after Ontario suspended those tariffs.
President Trump has said he is rebuilding wealth based on decades or even a century of time in the future, and that this cannot be measured in the quarterly results of America's stock market giants. With comments from his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, the White House was sending a message to markets that the president now has some tolerance for short-term market and economic pain. That has changed the calculus. There are two other factors at play here as well. There is evidence of a real potential reversal in US economic sentiment, raising questions about a recession. The most recent real-time analysis by the Atlanta branch of the US Federal Reserve predicts a contraction in the US economy in the first three months of the year. Government cuts may also contribute to such a reading, but private sector sentiment has also taken a hit, particularly from the hokey cokey on tariffs. Above all, uncertainty threatens to cripple. Policies change from day to day, and yet can be halted retrospectively. Key US government departments are not entirely clear about the direction of travel at the White House. To top it all, in the case of Canada, the likely election indicates little incentive to compromise.
Really, when Trump says he wants to use economic leverage to make his northern neighbour his "51st state", what compromise is there to be had?
The direction of travel here is for an increase in the intensity and scope of the trade war.
New trade barriers on the EU based on "reciprocity" could emerge in three weeks' time.
When other nations see signs of re-emerging inflation in the US, they will try to raise it further to convey to American consumers the consequences of their government's decisions.
Over the past fortnight the world has learned that President Trump is serious about tariffs, even on his own allies. They have been implemented en masse.
Key trading partners have responded in kind and have had incentive to move forward. And the White House now wants to show that it has a high pain threshold for short-term economic and market disruption.
All roads lead to April 2, and the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," and for the moment these tensions are not leading to a truce, cease-fire or truce.
